2000 Guineas Preview: Has Churchill had his finest hour?

No trainer since the nineteenth century has a better record in the first classic of the season than Aidan O’Brien whose first success in the 2000 Guineas came in 1998 with King of Kings, since when he has won the race a further six times. His method of prepping his Guineas winners is a tried and tested one, and an apparently very simple one, too – he just doesn’t bother with trials. All seven of O’Brien’s Guineas winners, who each had quite varied campaigns as two-year-olds, went straight to Newmarket after their winter break.

The same approach has been taken with Ballydoyle’s leading contender this year Churchill, last seen in public at the beginning of October when decisively landing the odds in the Dewhurst Stakes at Newmarket. Churchill had a full campaign as a two-year-old, racing six times in as many months from May to October and winning his last five races. His best effort, albeit in a Group 1 which lacked strength in depth, came in the National Stakes at the Curragh which he won by more than four lengths. None of O’Brien’s Guineas winners had contested the National Stakes and the Dewhurst, let alone won both – only Rock of Gibraltar ran in, and won, the Newmarket contest.

Churchill has been the short-priced ante-post favourite for the Guineas for some time now, and going into the winter he was rated 7 lb clear of Rivet and Lancaster Bomber who, among his rivals at Newmarket on Saturday, had the best two-year-old form. As well as looking open to more improvement than either of that pair, Churchill had already beaten them both. Rivet was only fifth in the Dewhurst, before winning the Racing Post Trophy a fortnight later, while Churchill’s stable-companion Lancaster Bomber was sent off at 66/1 when beaten just over a length behind him at Newmarket after finishing a lot further back in the National Stakes.

But while Churchill has been working away on the gallops at Ballydoyle, a lot has happened on the racecourse in recent weeks to make his position at the head of the Guineas market look much less secure. The various trials have done their job in throwing up legitimate Guineas candidates, and with no fewer than three unbeaten, lightly-raced colts suddenly bursting onto the scene with impressive wins, Churchill’s ante-post backers have good reason to be a little nervous now.

First to impress was Al Wukair who added to a couple of wins at two when landing the odds in the Prix Djebel at Maisons-Laffitte from the Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere winner National Defense. Al Wukair raced lazily in rear early in the race and idled once in front, but he made a really good impression making ground in between and will be suited by the return to a mile. The last French-trained 2000 Guineas winner, Makfi in 2010, won the Djebel, and it’s a route Al Wukair’s trainer Andre Fabre took with his Guineas winners in the ‘nineties Zafonic and Pennekamp.

Next it was the turn of Eminent who took his record over the Guineas course and distance to two from two for local trainer Martyn Meade when overcoming inexperience to beat Rivet by a length and three quarters in the Craven Stakes. Eminent is a big, imposing son of Frankel (ironically, out of a useful mare which Aidan O’Brien trained) and has a leading chance of following in his father’s footsteps in the Guineas.

Frankel used Newbury’s Greenham Stakes as his Guineas trial, as did Night of Thunder (second at Newbury in 2014), those two being the last couple of 2000 Guineas winners to have taken in a prep race along the way. The latest Greenham threw up arguably the pick of the trial winners when Barney Roy confirmed debut promise from a Haydock maiden last season with an impressive beating of fellow Godolphin-owned colt Dream Castle. The latter, also the winner of his only start beforehand, looked like winning in good style himself when sweeping into the lead but had no answer to Barney Roy in the closing stages. Barney Roy, trained like Night of Thunder by Richard Hannon, won over a mile at two and is sure to benefit from the return to that trip and from the extra experience he gained at Newbury. Dream Castle is another promising colt by Frankel but looks much less likely to be suited by another furlong.

In what looks set to be a select field of a dozen runners at most, it will be a big surprise if the winner comes from outside those named above. Churchill’s two-year-old form looks no worse now than it did at the time, but events in recent weeks mean that odds of 7/4 at best look poor value about him now. None of the three trial winners has to improve much, if at all, to be a serious threat to the favourite, and Barney Roy, provided he handles the quick turnaround just a fortnight after the Greenham, looks the one to be with.   

Recommended bet:

Barney Roy to win the 2000 Guineas at 9/2

Read our 1000 Guineas preview here