1000 Guineas Preview: I believe I Can Fly

The colours of Magnier, Tabor and Smith – in their various guises – have been in the winner’s enclosure after the 1000 Guineas so often in recent years that the race has almost become something of a Ballydoyle benefit; indeed, they’ve won four of the last six renewals. Though Legatissimo (2015) was trained by David Wachman (as Winter was for her two-year-old season prior to her 1000 Guineas win last season), the majority of the owners’ success has come via Aidan O’Brien, who could saddle as many as five runners in Sunday's race as he seeks his own 1000 Guineas “five-for”.

Top of the betting (and weight-adjusted ratings) is Happily, a smart performer whose wins last term included the Silver Flash Stakes at Leopardstown, the Moyglare Stud Stakes at the Curragh and a win against the colts in the Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere at Chantilly.

Happily beats the boys in the Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere Grand Criterium - Watch all the action LIVE on @ITV pic.twitter.com/mSCQkko0RX

— ITV Racing (@itvracing) October 1, 2017

She signed off for the year with a below par effort in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf at Del Mar, but it’s easy enough to put a line through that, as she was soon behind after meeting trouble early. As with most at Ballydoyle, she’s the type to improve again this year and has to be high on any shortlist.

That comment also applies to I Can Fly, a half-sister to the high-class winner up to a mile Landseer, himself a winner of the French 2000 Guineas. I Can Fly was progressive in two starts in 2017, looking something out of the ordinary when winning on debut at Dundalk before finishing third to Altyn Orda in the Oh So Sharp Stakes over seven furlongs here.

She has the benefit of a run under her belt already this term, having shaped well when two lengths third behind Who’s Steph in the Leopardstown 1000 Guineas Trial on her return last month. That effort came on much softer ground than she had previously faced, and she has a similar profile to last year's winner Winter, who was beaten in that contest before improving by 12 lb to win this race on her next start.

Who's Steph - impressive for @gerlyonsracing and @ctkjockey in the 1,000 Guineas Trial at @LeopardstownRC! pic.twitter.com/ez4yxJRyTl

— At The Races (@AtTheRaces) April 14, 2018

Of the other possible O’Brien runners, the useful pair of Bye Bye Bay and Sizzling – both well held at Navan last time - need to take their form up several notches, so a bigger player could be Sarrocchi. She shaped as if better for the race when six lengths eighth in the Leopardstown 1000 Guineas Trial, still green and not knocked about, and remains open to improvement on just her third career start.

Though frosty relations in the sales ring may have thawed in recent years, the rivalry between Godolphin and Coolmore on the racecourse is as keen as ever. Godolphin look to have their best chance in this race since Blue Bunting’s 2011 win, with their first runner(s) since Lucida finished second in 2015.

Wild Illusion quickly developed into a smart performer over a mile in 2017, winning the Prix Marcel Boussac at Chantilly on her final start in first-time cheekpieces, ridden more prominently than previously. She was always well positioned that day, but showed a good attitude to prevail, and should have more to offer, though with plenty of stamina in her pedigree, she may not reach her full potential until the Oaks.

Conversely, Soliloquy is more speedily bred, by Dubawi (who lacked a recent run when only fifth in the 2005 renewal of the 2000 Guineas) and out of a smart Australian sprinter/miler. Soliloquy created a good impression at two and duly showed improved form to win the Nell Gwyn Stakes over seven furlongs here on return, showing a decisive turn of foot to beat Altyn Orda by one and three quarter lengths.

Soliloquy wins the Lanwades Stud Nell Gwyn Stakes at @NewmarketRace - Watch LIVE on @ITV4 pic.twitter.com/yumwloM9Og

— ITV Racing (@itvracing) April 18, 2018

She has since been supplemented for this and has to be taken seriously with her stable in red-hot form, a comment that also applies to Altyn Orda, who shapes as if this longer trip will suit and looks overpriced at 16/1 considering her very solid form lines.

Like Soliloquy, Dan’s Dream was supplemented on Monday. She has shown much improved form this season, winning both starts, most recently the Fred Darling Stakes at Newbury by one and a quarter lengths from Tajaanus. Named after Dan Nicholls, who became paralysed from the neck down aged 18, all prize-money earned by the horse goes to the Nicholls Spinal Injury Foundation, which funds research into finding a cure for paralysis. There would be no more popular winner, but she needs to improve significantly in order to do so.

Anna Nerium won the Dick Poole Fillies' Stakes at Salisbury (by a neck from Eirene) in 2017 and proved she had trained on when winning the listed Free Handicap over seven furlongs here on return. That was a useful effort to beat the colts, and she looks well worth her place in this field, with her pedigree (by Dubawi out of a daughter of Old Vic who won over 1¼m) suggesting the step up in trip here will be no problem.

Of the rest, Laurens won three of four starts last season, including the May Hill Stakes at Doncaster and Fillies' Mile over C&D (by a nose from September, making all on the stands rail). She will be suited by middle distances this season, but connections are keen on starting off here and she shouldn’t be underestimated, a comment that also applies to Liquid Amber, who improved significantly when storming clear in the Flame of Tara Stakes at the Curragh last August and could - as the cliché goes - be anything.

Conclusion

Happily sets the standard on form and should have more to offer this season, but I Can Fly has a similar profile to last year's winner Winter and very much caught the eye on her return at Leopardstown last month. She is expected to strip much fitter for that run and find the requisite improvement to be a big player here. Godolphin supplemented Soliloquy on Monday and she commands plenty of respect along with the seemingly overpriced Altyn Orda.

Recommended bet:

I Can Fly to win Sunday’s 1000 Guineas at 7/1