Royal Ascot Preview: Five head-to-heads for the week

Every day at Royal Ascot, before racing, there’s the traditional procession, where the supreme ruler, with accompanying entourage, makes their noble way up the straight, admired, appreciated and applauded; and only when Aidan O’Brien has completed his walk can the Queen climb into her carriage.

There are due to be several equine processions at Royal Ascot, none more so than the aptly-named Coronation Stakes for Winter, a true head of state: a feminine head on a state-of-the-art engine. But two heads – or more – are better than one, as it’s the conflict that makes the tension, and it’s the tension makes the drama, and it’s the drama that makes Royal Ascot. Here are the top five head-to-heads for the week:

CHURCHILL v BARNEY ROY

As far as head-to-heads go, this is about as good as it gets. If there’s one thing better than a rivalry then it’s a rivalry renewed, the Guineas more a comma than a full stop, Newmarket the stage and the lines delivered more like the end of an act, rather than the end of the play, Churchill the winner but reason for Barney Roy celebrating like Labour.

There was a length between them in the Guineas, yet there’s only 1 lb between them on Timeform ratings for the St James’s Palace Stakes, the race, or the ride, that almost beat Frankel. The run of the race, and the ride on Churchill, was what did for Barney Roy at Newmarket, compounded by his immaturity, and it’s a good bet he’ll run to nearer 130 around a turn to help the turnaround. The question is, at odds-on, is Churchill a good bet to cash whatever cheque Barney writes, like a champion high jumper who joins in late to unflappably clear the requisite height.

Ratings say they should be closer in the market, but Churchill isn’t a ratings kinda horse, giving all that’s needed and not all he’s got, his force far more than a figure, and there’s something about the way Ryan Moore speaks of him that reinforces the idea that Churchill is different for the on-boarder than the onlooker.

I’ll be backing Barney Roy, but this has all the hallmarks of a double negative, for the money lost on the bet then the money lost on plasters for the cuts when I’ve spent five minutes kicking myself after Churchill does what Churchill always does.

BRITISH AND IRISH CUBS v WES WARD

The British and Irish Lions look set to be the maulees rather than the maulers in the tests against New Zealand, and the British and Irish Cubs – racing’s two-year-old branch – likewise look at the mercy of one nation, through one man, Wes Ward. The myth may be outgrowing the reality with Ward’s juvenile juggernauts, but the reality is fairly fearsome, with seven Royal Ascot winners in the last eight years.

Without knowing much beyond the videos of various spins around Keeneland, we’ve got a fair idea of their make and shape, always big and usually clever, and the pertinent point this year is the relatively low standard of the youngsters on either side of the Irish Sea. It says something about the colts that a filly is top of the class, Alpha Centauri already at a level (106p) that would have won her every one of the last seven renewals of the Albany, though that’s the target for Ward’s Fairyland, and he has market leaders in the Queen Mary (Happy Like A Fool), Norfolk (McErin) and Windsor Castle (Nookta Sound), as well as a co-favourite in the Coventry (Arawak). Bookmakers are well aware of his speed machines, but there’s a fine line between running fast and running scared.

CARAVAGGIO v HARRY ANGEL

When Harry met Carry.

If there have been two ‘wow’ moments on the Flat this season, this pair provided them. ‘I knew he was good but I didn’t know he was that good’ was the general reaction in both cases, probably more so with Harry Angel, given his lower-key approach. Caravaggio did what even Wes Ward couldn’t by winning two races in one, in last year’s Coventry, in which he beat those he raced with in the middle group before going over to the far side to gobble up Mehmas.

Royal Ascot was a 7, but his turbo-boosted comeback at Naas had a magnitude of 9 on the richter scale. But just six days later, in the Sandy Lane, Harry Angel hit 8.9. And that’s the crux of the Commonwealth collision course: Caravaggio is a confirmed heavyweight, but so too is Harry Angel now, all the data around his Haydock performance suggesting he’s every bit as good as he looked, and every bit as good as the one who’s so much shorter than him in the betting.

I’ll be backing Harry Angel, but I refer the honourable gentleman to the answer I gave some moments ago about taking on a Ballydoyle high-roller.

KING’S STAND v DIAMOND JUBILEE

They’re individual races to be won, but there’s also competition between the two premier sprints for top billing, and the dividing line is one of sex and not just speed this time. The Diamond Jubilee consists of the usual suspects, and mostly male, but the fast and fiery fillies are all in the King’s Stand. The head-to-head, ladies and gentlemen, are the ladies and gentlemen.

On the average of the first five in the ratings of the likely runners, the Diamond Jubilee comes out marginally ahead (125.6 plays 125.4), but the sexy ones in this battles of the sexes are all in the King’s Stand, including the UK beauty queen and the US brawn machine, Marsha and Lady Aurelia. Add in another Queen Mary winner in Acapulco and the Temple winner in Priceless, and the King’s Stand is like ladies day brought forward by 48 hours.

The King’s Stand may be the better race, but it’s also the harder race, and the reason the Diamond Jubilee outscores it narrowly on pre-race ratings is all because Limato brings a hefty 129 to the party, and he should be clear favourite for his task, the cold runs excusable since his hotspots of last summer.

GOOD ORDER OF ST GEORGE v BAD ORDER OF ST GEORGE

The grey areas are the goldmines of Royal Ascot, or any major meeting for that matter, but the Gold Cup is a black-and-white matter, with a black-and-white horse: you either trust the Dr Jekyll in Order of St George and think odds-against as a gift, or you only see the dark Mr Hyde and the other opportunities that his short price brings. It’s a trust issue.

The game is the game, and if George brings his A-game then it’s game over, like in this race last year, but he’s been beaten four times since, three of those at odds-on, and that’s understandably once too many for many.

You’d have thought, given the miles on their clocks and the circles in which they mix, that the Orange-Order shootout would have happened before, but George has never faced Big Orange, not until now. The time has come for Big Orange to flex his stamina muscles to the full and tackle the marathon distance of the Gold Cup, and, in theory, he’s the stuff of nightmares for Order of St George, being so aggressive. Single-minded and strong-willed are the very qualities of Big Orange, and the very pressure points of Order of St George. This head-to-head is all in the mind.