Jamie Lynch: York Ebor Festival Preview

When you assume, you make an ass out of u and me.

Like bombs, promises and post-pub bets, assumptions are dangerous things to make. Punters tend to have a confused relationship with assumptions. It's the odds, rather than us, that do the assuming, dictating the conclusion which we then reason in our head. Let's work our way through five assumptions for an important racing week ahead.

1. POSTPONED WILL BE 100%

The in-built assumption in his price of around 6/4 is that Postponed is comfortably the best horse in a 13-strong field and in a position to express it. Knowledge is power, and we're pretty safe in the knowledge that Postponed is the most powerful horse in the International, albeit not by quite so much as you might think, only 3 lb clear on Timeform adjusted ratings of Hawkbill, who gets the 3-y-o allowance of 8 lb, and there are as many as five others within 7 lb of him. Nonetheless, it's more the external and environmental factors that are at odds with his odds.

The shorter trip than he's used to is hardly an issue, as the Time Lord Simon Rowlands expertly explains, but the fact he had to miss the King George is a minor worry and the stable being so quiet is a slightly bigger one, and it's the cumulative effect of all three that makes the comfortable slippers of a short-priced favourite slide steadily off your feet. Put it this way, using reverse hindsight, if Postponed isn't at 100% on the day - and he'll need to be given what's against him - then it will be easy to say why.

2. LIMATO IS A FIVE-FURLONG HORSE

It's been about a year since Limato has been able to race without without talk of the trip taking over, overtaking the truth of his talent. From the will-he-won't-he of the 7f Park Stakes to the can-he-can't-he mile of the Lockinge and back to the should-he-shouldn't-he 6f of the July Cup, the distance merry-go-round has revolved once too many, Limato like the actor outgrowing a ropey soap. But the soap is just getting interesting, and everyone's been looking in the right place at the wrong time, but now is exactly the right time.

Once a sprinter, always a sprinter, so seemed to be the lesson from the July Cup, nothing he hadn't done before, but this is. And it's not just 5f, it's York's 5f.

The betting says Limato is rapid enough, making him clear favourite, but that's a big assumption for a horse whose first ever attempt at 5f will be in a Group 1 on an uber-fast track against real trailblazers.

3. IDAHO WILL ENHANCE HIS ST LEGER CLAIMS BY WINNING THE VOLTIGEUR

When Idaho wins the Voltigeur, which he should, and maybe win it by daylight, which he could (10 lb+ clear on Timeform ratings), he'll be, depending on the margin, somewhere between 7/4 and 9/4 for the St Leger. But York won't answer the burning question with him for Doncaster, namely stamina.

His full-brother Highland Reel won a Leger trial and didn't go anywhere near Doncaster, not designed for it according to O'Brien, and Idaho is - literally and figuratively - cut from the same cloth, showing more speed than stamina on his Derby days, twice outstayed by Harzand.

Idaho deserves to be odds-on for the Voltigeur, but it's odds-on he'll be cut dramatically for the Leger, undeservedly so.

4. FAIR EVA IS THE REAL DEAL   

She's a different size and shape to Frankel, but she's all over her father's daughter for grace of movement and a souped-up engine, the two combined meaning racing comes so easily to her, truly the real deal. Fair Eva is nearly the best British 2-y-o full stop, let alone the best British 2-y-o filly, and she could do something special in the Lowther, on Ladies Day.

The other Frankel in the line-up, Queen Kindly, has a remarkable pedigree for this very race, her dam and grandam having won it, but this is one instance where all the assumptions about Fair Eva are 100% right.

5. FOUND IS THE BALLYDOYLE FIRST STRING IN THE YORKSHIRE OAKS

The fact that Aidan O'Brien is running four says something in itself, and Found is the presumed number one as much on reputation as anything else. It hasn't quite happened for her this season, and she's coming into this fresh, which isn't necessarily a positive with her, beaten first time out in her last two campaigns, seemingly in her element when busy.