Jamie Lynch: Predictions for 2019

In a poll of the most common New Year’s resolutions, the second highest was to eat healthier, the third to save money and the fourth to sleep more. The top answer, by far, was not to commit to any resolutions at all. Resolutions are like predictions in that they’re deeply flawed, soon forgotten and virtually meaningless to anyone except those making them, and so, in that self-aware spirit of the triviality of the task, here are five predictions for 2019, with a couple of pointed punts on top.

1. THE MARCH OF THE MARES

This has been a recurring theme for a few years on the Flat, but the jumps is joining in, increasingly so. In 2018, Shattered Love was the first mare to win a novice chase at the Cheltenham Festival for 23 years when bullying the boys in the JLT, 48 hours after Ms Parfois nearly beat her to it in the National Hunt Chase, signalling a shift – in approach as much as allowance-related ability – that came to a heroine head on Boxing Day when La Bague Au Roi toppled Topofthegame and co in the Kauto Star and Verdana Blue gave a black eye to none other than Buveur d’Air in the Christmas Hurdle.

It’s a changing climate over jumps, of less division and more collision, for the better and for the future, ready to ramp up in 2019, in line with the Flat which already has its global glamour girls like Enable, Winx and number 5.

2. PERSIAN KING WINS A GROUP 1 IN BRITAIN

Britain and Ireland were overloaded with two-year-old talent in 2018, and one or all of Too Darn Hot, Quorto and Ten Sovereigns are monsters in the making, but, Brexit or not, there’s a French flyer with his eyes on a British prize, namely Persian King. From his pedigree (by Kingman) to his physique and the person training him, a certain Andre Fabre, Persian King has all the privileges to thrive as a three-year-old, and the shooting stars over here rather masked the fact the he was something of a juvenile juggernaut in his own right.

His success in the Autumn Stakes was significant for two reasons: firstly, by virtue of coming to Newmarket, it smacked of a test run, for the Guineas for starters, and secondly the horse he beat, Magna Grecia, made Persian King look all the more powerful by subsequently winning the Futurity Trophy at Doncaster. It’s a while since Andre Fabre won a biggie in Britain, but it’s clear he means business with Persian King, a top two-year-old from last year who wasn’t so hyped and heralded as the others.

Persian King (6-5F) bravely sees off the Ballydoyle battalions to win the Group 3 Autumn Stakes @NewmarketRace for Andre Fabre & Pierre-Charles Boudot.

Results https://t.co/7iJOPsdIyZ pic.twitter.com/QndQAt5qXO

— Racing TV (@RacingTV) October 13, 2018

3. SANTINI FAVOURITE FOR THE GOLD CUP    

To get where you’re going, you generally have to go out of your comfort zone at some stage, which was the case with Santini in the Kauto Star around Kempton, which wasn’t his track, nor his ground, either. Finishing third – and a rallying third at that – behind the aforementioned La Bague Au Roi and Topofthegame was a case of job done for Santini, if that job was indeed tightening the screws and sharpening the tools ahead of Cheltenham and the RSA.

At the finish, Santini was just getting going, like his career is just getting going, but he already looks to have all the ingredients of a Gold Cup winner of the future, and it’s a good bet he’ll be favourite for it following this year’s RSA, in which his stamina can be showcased all the more.

4. AUSTRALIA’S ASCENT   

Kingman and No Nay Never were the headline-grabbers amongst the first-season sires in 2018, and no great surprise in that given their means and genes, but the more the season went on the more the feeling fostered that there was a storm brewing for 2019 for Australia. He was never going to hit the ground sprinting as a stallion, because only time and distance unveiled his powers, like father like sons and daughters in that regard, but in three of the stiffest (for stamina) Group 1 juvenile races of last autumn -  the mile of the Vertem Futurity and the Jean-Luc Lagardere and the mile and a quarter of the Criterium de Saint-Cloud – Australia’s representatives Western Australia, Broome and Sydney Opera House finished third, second and second in their respective races.

That was a tell-tell sign of what they can do and, moreover, what they will do when sent over middle distances in 2019, set to make a name for themselves and for their big daddy, who was himself by a Derby winner out of an Oaks winner. It’s a big year ahead for Australia, bolstered by the brilliance of Ballydoyle.

5. NEWSPAPEROFRECORD EXPLODES IN EUROPE

She lit up the Breeders’ Cup with a performance in the Juvenile Fillies Turf the like of which has never been seen before, impressing everyone in every way. A transatlantic crossing for Royal Ascot would be less of a foreign foray and more of a homecoming, as she was born and bred over here, sourced by Chad Brown at the Tattersalls October Sales, and a filly this formidable needs to be seen and not just heard about.

From what we saw in each of her three wide-margin wins in America, the best of the British boys – Too Darn Hot amongst them – would do well to beat her, without the fillies allowance let alone with it, and the Coronation may be a coronation in more ways than one at Royal Ascot in June. She’s a game-changer for the US and maybe for the sport.

And here are two long-range, long-priced ante-post arrows for 2019:

THOMAS PATRICK, GRAND NATIONAL

The wheels have rather come off Thomas Patrick the last twice, but that’s the reason he’s 40/1 for the Grand National, and we know there’s a big engine in there, plus we know he’s got a good trainer to re-fix the tyres. Amongst the favourites for the National is Elegant Escape, having won the Welsh version, and it’s worth remembering there was just half a length between them, as recently as November, after which Thomas Patrick went off 3/1 favourite for the Ladbrokes Trophy. That makes him very interesting for a race that looks right up his street, successful at the National meeting last year.

SAN DONATO, COMMONWEALTH CUP 

‘You can never be afraid of one horse’ is the cry of every trainer about the enter a lion’s den, but there’s an added truth to it with ante-post betting, and it applies to the Commonwealth Cup. Ten Sovereigns already has at least one hoof on it, given the pace and power he showed as a two-year-old, but, in the queue forming behind him, San Donato should be much higher than the market has him. He grew in status and speed in the second half of the season, signing off with a Group-class performance in a listed race at Doncaster, substantiated by the second home that day, Barbill, winning in France a fortnight later. He’s under the radar, despite his rating and record.