Jamie Lynch: Jumping to America

Will the belatedly-boingy Cue Card bounce his way around the Charlie Hall like he did in that race, and several better ones, last season? Will the new regime, under Sergeant Skelton, put some fire into Yorkist’s soft belly at Ascot? Will Native River be clear favourite for the Hennessy after the West Yorkshire Hurdle at Wetherby?

Yes, yes and yes.

Now that the weekend preview is done, let’s take a step back for a wider appreciation of where we are, and what we’ve learned, driving through the jumps season with a glance in the rear-view mirror, but also sneaking a peek at the US monument in the near-distance.

It’s a ten-to-two shift: ten points, two topics.

FIVE FEATURES OF THE NATIONAL HUNT SEASON SO FAR

1. NICHOLLS MEANS BUSINESS

Fourteen, ten, eleven, eleven. Not the references to ‘transitional season’ by Paul Nicholls in the previous four years but the number of winners for him in October. This time it’s personal, and this time it’s 26…and counting. Nearly – very nearly – having the British trainers’ title hooked away from him in the season-long scrum between his quantity and Mullins’ quality has appeared to send Nicholls into a different direction, the Denman direction, to go hard to force the others to go home, or stay at home.

It’s an unsustainable gallop, and a natural dip will be turned into a manufactured crisis, when it inevitably comes, but the tone, and the pace, has been set. Stable form is like an aging, wealthy relative in that it needs revisiting every fortnight or so, but, while we’re here, honourable mentions also go to Donald McCain, Malcolm Jefferson and Jamie Snowdon, each making the top ten of the current Timeform Trainer Rankings.

2. THERE ARE INDUSTRIAL HAIRDRYERS AT CLOSUTTON

To keep the powder dry.

The updrafts quickly carry the air upwards so that it spills over the top of the cloud, then the descending air becomes warmer and drier, stabilising the atmosphere of the region it blankets, before the pressure that has produced that vacuum rolls in. That, ladies and gentlemen, is what’s known as the calm before the storm.

In contrast to Nicholls, and in contrast to preceding seasons, Willie Mullins has been quiet in the early National Hunt skirmishes. Just have a look at these stats to see for yourself:

The strike-rate for both performance and wins is its usual unusual high self, but there have been notably fewer runners through this October, down by 30 on the 2013 number. But you get the feeling that it’s just a case of the team talk going on for longer, not that one is needed, as a lazy pro-turned-pundit might say in football, as Michael O’Leary has done it for him.

I’ve got an image of Maximus Mullinus, Commander of the Armies of the West, in full gladiator costume, saying: ‘At my signal, unleash hell.’

3. THISTLECRACK REALLY IS GOLD STANDARD

Apart from the odd grey horse, there are no grey areas in racing nowadays, where polls and polarised opinions are all that matter. Thistlecrack hadn’t crossed the line at Chepstow when the debate started as to whether or not he should be favourite for the Gold Cup, a black-and-white game on a grey board.

If the Gold Cup contenders played his game of hurdling, then he’d be favourite, no doubt about it, because of his high-powered engine and extra gears, so the crux of the question is less about ability and more about jumping, which is impossible to answer after 18 fences, but easy to guess from his 18 leaps.

‘If you are looking for answers I can tell you I don't have any, but what I do have are a very particular set of skills. Skills I have acquired over a very long career. Skills that make me a nightmare for rivals like Vautour.’

The set of skills, rather than the round as a whole, was the most impressive aspect of Thistlecrack’s jumping at Chepstow, the long and short of it, long when called upon and putting in a short one when he had to, showing agility and athleticism in equal measure. Make no mistake, because he didn’t: Thistlecrack is ready and ready-made for the 2017 Gold Cup.

4. THIEF HAS REVEALED HIS IDENTITY

If Thistlecrack was given a 9/10 for artistic impression on his chasing debut, Identity Thief got a 10.  

The promotional material was always a bit better than the product over hurdles, but there was something striking about the way he took to fences at Punchestown earlier in the month, as impressive as a horse with nothing to beat ever can be.

‘Right, where’s the next one?’ he seemed to be saying between fences, an attacking outlook that was refreshing to see. It could be a hot Arkle, as it usually is, but he’s already set the jumping bar high for the likes of Yorkhill and Altior, and Identity Thief promises to do more as a chaser to bridge the small-but-significant gap between them on hurdles form.

5. CANNON READY TO BE FIRED INTO THE BIGGER TIME

Passmore giving a fright to odds-on Tearsofclewbay at Worcester in mid-October was a solid start over hurdles by her, and a solid start in a new job for Tom Cannon, now in as second jockey to Alan King.

On the Timeform Jockey Ratings, Cannon has always punched above his weight, given the largely moderate horses he’s had to deal with, but the link-up with King opens up stage doors, taking him from bystander to stand-by for some classy jumpers. That banging on the stage door is the sound of opportunity knocking for Tom Cannon. He has the tools and the talent to grab it with both hands.   

***

And now for something completely different.

Same sport, but another world, from tweed and hurdles to speed and girdles, as we’re off to America for a first pass at the Breeders’ Cup.

FIVE EURO EYE-CATCHERS IN THE BREEDERS’ CUP PRE-ENTRIES

1. ROLY POLY – JUVENILE FILLIES TURF

At first glance, it looks a Star Wars story of the son defeating his father, the way O’Brien Jnr did in the Moyglare with Intricately, but, borrowing Aristotle, the whole may be greater than the son of its parts.

Everything that’s happened since the Curragh indicates that Intricately is the real deal, considering that behind her in the Moyglare were the old man’s Hydrangea, Rhododendron, Promise To Be True and Brave Anna, who’ve since racked up two Group 1 wins and two Group 1 seconds between them. But the hunch is that they were self-oppressed rather than suppressed by Intricately, more a refraction of light than a reflection of her. Just a hunch, though.

Roly Poly was short headed by Brave Anna in the Cheveley Park, yet was in the teeth of the race far sooner, in the jetwash of Lady Aurelia, and she has the form and fortitude to go far in the race, provided she goes as far as a mile, but her pedigree says she will, plus Santa Anita is more about speed than stamina, anyway.

2. LIMATO – MILE

Santa Anita had better be more about speed than stamina, otherwise Limato could be cooked.   

A Timeform rating of 129 is a bigger punch than any other miling Euros are packing in their case for America, and it’s enough to frighten Tepin, too, but he’ll need to managing and harnessing at the trip. If he settles well, he could settle it well before the final furlong.  

In the Ryder Cup of racing, Limato is Rory McIlroy.

3. SUEDOIS – TURF SPRINT

However he gets on, Suedois is a refreshing entry for a race that British trainers have shied away from, despite the cash and conditions. A winless campaign doesn’t do justice to Suedois, who has banged heads with the best, including Limato at Chantilly, and the 6½f trip of the Turf Sprint is right up his street, as he showed when not beaten far in the Prix Maurice de Gheest.

His form is at least the equivalent of Washington DC, who’s favourite in some lists, saying something about the turf sprinters in the US, and backing Suedois for small stakes at American odds could be a potentially profitable play. He’s no outsider.

4. ULYSSES – TURF

Highland Reel has it to do with the treacherous Flintshire (now trained in the US), let alone Ulysses, but he’s an unexpected and welcome addition to the Breeders’ Cup raiding party. It may be more a road trip for him, a journey of discovery, to turn the boy into the man, but stranger things have happened in the Breeders’ Cup Turf, and Frankie Dettori – pencilled in for Ulysses - has made them happen: remember Red Rocks and Dangerous Midge.     

5. SEVENTH HEAVEN – FILLY AND MARE TURF

It’s a mile and a quarter. And it’s a tight track. That’s the Kryptonite, and the worry, for Seventh Heaven, who has shone this year when the emphasis has been on stamina. Her powers were dimmed by the steady gallop on Champions Day at Ascot, and O’Brien and Moore will have to cook something up between them if she’s to strut her staying stuff on this stage, but if anybody can scheme it then it’s those two.