Champions Day: Dissecting the Middle Distance Series

It's like a remake of:

Mr & Mrs Smith

An upper-class couple, assassins both, learnt a lot more about each other and themselves in direct combat than they ever did sailing through life. She has him to think for awakening her oft-hidden but newly-Found talent, and he has her to thank for putting the man into Almanzor.

The story so far:

In 20 BC, Emperor Caesar Augustus erected a monument in central Rome, the Milliarium Aureum, inscribed with the phrase Mille viae ducunt homines per saecula Romam: A thousand roads lead men forever to Rome.

All roads literally led to Rome, and, this season, all middle-distance roads led to Leopardstown, a colosseum for every go-getting gladiator, for one of the biggest battles of all time, in the Irish Champion Stakes. ‘Are you not entertained?’ asked an electric, explosive Almanzor. Yes, we were.

And, like the Milliariium Aureum, the lines radiated from and not just to this resplendent touchstone, as proven by one of the other road-rallying roundabouts of the world, the Arc de Triomphe, where the Irish deputy became France’s first lady.

Is it a championship decider?

We’re in ‘best horse in the world’ territory here, middle distances still the classic genre, and California Chrome for one has laid a compelling claim on that title. Even in the European Championships, there’s a faint whiff of the semi-final being bigger than this pseudo-final, but any race involving the principals players from the epic Irish Champion Stakes, as well as last year’s winner, is a one-for-all definer if not an all-for-one decider.  

Key issue in the race:

Not so much of a key issue in this race as the last one, as we have to revisit the Irish Champion Stakes and ask whether there was any chance Almanzor was flattered by where and when he made his move, wide and late.

There’s little doubt, from various results on the outer-track races that day, that the loop-and-swoop tactic was a favourable one under the conditions that played out, but regards the suggestion that an overly-strong pace teed it up for Almanzor, Time Lord Simon Rowlands concluded in his award-winning Sectional Debrief that ‘sectionals do not really support that.’

If he wasn’t flattered, and it hardly came out of the blue, such was his tally and trajectory, then the only issue in the Champion Stakes is how far for Almanzor.

Key point in the race:

They didn’t know at the time they were playing the game, though they will do here, but in the cat-and-mouse affair between the big two in the Irish Champion, Found was herself delivered late, through the pack, if one step ahead of Almanzor.

What Leopardstown told us, and told Aidan O’Brien, was that Found can’t beat him for speed, so instead she’ll have to use her Arc-winning stamina to try to draw the sting out of Almanzor. Therefore, expect all hell to break loose rounding the home turn at Ascot, where Found will have to do her hard running and where Christophe Soumillon may have to do some hard bargaining to not get locked in – Almanzor is drawn 1 – and to not let Found get away.  

Best bet:

It’s best not to complicate matters. The betting suggests Almanzor would win this race four times out of every ten. Traffic and trouble aside, I’d say it’s more like seven or eight, and traffic and trouble included I’d still say it’s more like seven or eight, as he has the turbo to get him out of most spots. Almanzor has almost single-handedly revived the near-forgotten racing art of the turn of foot. 6/4 is a fair price about him putting on another exhibition at Ascot.