Jamie Lynch on the Breeders’ Cup: Ten Classic Furlongs

Ten furlongs. It’s the Classic distance. But 163½ furlongs will be covered in the 13 Breeders’ Cup events, and there’ll be (at least) ten classic furlongs within them that decides the flow and the fate of the biggest horses in the biggest races. Let’s look - through a European prism to begin with, before rounding up the US heavyweights – at some of the most critical furlongs for the primary players at the 2016 Breeders’ Cup.

1. FOUND’S ELEVENTH FURLONG    

As far as irresistible head-to-heads go, the Turf has it all: a battle of the sexes, a battle of the best horses, a battle of the best riders, and a transatlantic battle with a twist, an extra edge, because Flintshire has engaged the caterpillar drive and done a Marko Ramius by defecting to the US.

It’s suddenly home advantage for Flintshire, not that racing abroad could ever be considered an away fixture for the worldly-wise Found and, whether or not it’s a neutral ground, that it’s a battle ground is all the matters. What matters is the eleventh furlong, especially for Found, as that’s the pressure-piling point for her, the hard yards when she overpowered Golden Horn in this race last year, the hard yards when she broke the Arc field last month, and the hard questions she’ll ask of Flintshire at around 10.24pm on Saturday.

Flintshire will try to pick her off at the eleventh hour; Found could have him cooked in the eleventh furlong.

2. WASHINGTON DC’S FIFTH FURLONG  

Washington DC’s fifth furlong is one of the best in the business. It has arrowed him into the outer bull rather than the bullseye so far, runner-up on 3 of his last 4 starts, including the Abbaye, but in those races the fifth furlong was the final one, and here, in the Turf Sprint, he’s got another one and a half to go.

That can only be a good thing, you’d think, but the fifth furlong of the race is probably the most crucial one for Washington DC and Ryan Moore, as it will be hell for leather on the run to the straight and it will only be if he comes through that unscathed and in a position to strike that Washington DC can turn his trademark burst into a winning one.

3. LIMATO’S FIRST FURLONG

The early movers are more important than the late shakers when it comes to Limato’s bid for glory in the Mile. Racing isn’t a team sport, as the Shergar Cup proves while doing its best not to prove it, but if there was an award for Team of The Year then it could and perhaps should go to Limato and Harry Bentley, who’ve helped themselves and each other by association and combination, two becoming one near-unstoppable force.

Put yourself in Bentley’s boots at the start of the Foret at Chantilly. He had two jobs to do: cover up and quicken out, over a trip Limato is proven. The inside draw helped with the covering up, and the inferior opposition helped with the quickening out.

Now put yourself in Bentley’s boots at the start at Santa Anita. It’s the same two jobs, generally speaking, but, like a gymnast going for a bigger score, the difficulty level is ramped up, from the treble-whammy of the wide draw, the longer trip and the classier company.  

If lightning-strike Limato is going to outsprint them in the finish, which he clearly can, then he’s going to have to relax and tuck in as early as he can. The first cut is the deepest, and the first furlong is the deepest pitfall for the Limato.

4. SEVENTH HEAVEN’S SEVENTH FURLONG

Okay, so it’s a bit gimmicky to match the furlong with the name, but the mid-section of the Filly & Mare Turf is the make-or-break passage for Seventh Heaven. The long and hard climb to her rating peak of 126 took stamina, not speed, yet here she is in a race that tests speed, not stamina.

Ten furlongs around the tight turns of Santa Anita for Seventh Heaven is like some sort of Top Gear challenge where they take a tank to Imola, and to push through the seventh and eighth furlongs she’s going to need Pretty Perfect – the dynamo Derny – to really push through the seventh and eighth furlongs. She needs luck. In fact, she needs a miracle.

5. ROLY POLY’S FINAL FURLONG

It’s the same starting snag for Roly Poly as Limato for the double trouble of the wide draw and new trip, meaning a horse has to be settled before a score can be, but the final furlong is the biggy for her, so unchartered is that territory.

If this race was seven furlongs, she’d be clear favourite, with or without stall 13, but the extra distance involved in the Juvenile Fillies Turf is a quarter of a mile and not an eighth, and it’s a guess-up as to whether she’ll last it out. But the pedigree raises hopes, as does the team behind her.    

That’s the prim and proper Euros dealt with, and now let’s get down and dirty with those dirt devils from the US of A.

6. SONGBIRD’S SECOND FURLONG

She’s poetry in motion, as her unbeaten record would suggest, but in most of those 11 races Songbird has been able to do exactly what she wants, when she wants. But both Stellar Wind and Beholder have the pace and power to hurt her in the Distaff, and by the second furlong we’ll know how they intend to go about attacking her.

Press her early and they might be picking the wrong fight at the wrong time and damage themselves, but leave it late and they may not see which way she goes. By the second furlong, we’ll know and she’ll know, and that will shape the whole race.

7. ARROGATE’S EIGHTH FURLONG

It was during the eighth furlong of the Travers that Arrogate opened up…and opened up, and opened up. A 13½-length win (vidiprinter: thirteen-and-a-half) begs the question of freakish performance or freakish horse, and it will be answered, certainly in part and probably in full, around the eighth furlong of the Classic.

If the cracks appear then in California Chrome, we could have ourselves a new superstar in Arrogate. But the hunch is that the old warrior will show the young upstart what a real horse race looks like.

8. DORTMUND’S SIXTH FURLONG

It’s all about running. After running scared from the Classic, he’s got Runhappy and Gun Runner to beat. He’s got to outstay one and turn away the other, and the best way for Dortmund to do that is to blitz the sixth of the eight furlongs of the Dirt Mile. That’s the transition time for Martin Garcia, to break Runhappy and to get an edge on Gun Runner, and his stamina should do the rest.

9. SYNDERGAARD’S FIRST FURLONG

It’s safe to say, especially from stall 2, that Syndergaard will be leading the Juvenile field after the first furlong, but to what extent he’s in control – of himself and of the rest – will go a long way to determining the outcome, though he has the raw speed and skill to wire the field, to pinch an Americanism.

He lost his unbeaten record, to Practical Joke, but only by a nose in the Champagne (one of the key trial races) despite going so hard so soon. With lessons learnt from that, for horse and rider, Syndergaard could take some catching here, and the first furlong will be very revealing in that regard.

10. A. P. INDIAN’S FIFTH FURLONG  

The withdrawal of Lord Nelson and Joking from the Sprint changes the complexion, but not necessarily the dimension, as the field, though reduced to 7, is still speed-heavy, potentially playing into the hands of A. P Indian. Something has awoken in him this year, undefeated in 6 races, and his stalk-and-pounce style is tailor-made for this game, the penultimate furlong usually his best one.